Oil prices are trading more aggressively this morning, with Brent crude up more than 1.1% at the time of writing, following additional attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend, ING commodities experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
CPC loadings have been halted, and Kazakhstan plans to redirect exports
“The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has been forced to suspend loading operations at its terminals after one of its berths was damaged by Ukrainian attacks. The CPC terminal is located in the port of Novorossiysk in Russia, and mostly ships Kazakhstani crude oil. It has been on the receiving end of several attacks recently. The latest incident saw Kazakhstan activate a plan to redirect exports. Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged about 1.48 million barrels per day so far this year, an increase of approx. 200 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports.
“Adding support to the market increases supply risks for Venezuelan crude oil after President Trump said he was considering closing the airspace over the country. This escalation between the US and Venezuela has prompted the US to carry out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also strengthening its military presence nearby. Venezuela exports about 800,000 barrels per day, most of the crude oil will head to China. Any further escalation clearly puts this supply at risk.”
“OPEC+ met over the weekend. The group stuck to its policy of keeping production steady through the first quarter of next year “due to seasonality.” This was largely expected. At the same time, the group will review members’ maximum sustainable production capacity, which will serve as a reference for production baselines for 2027. This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines.
