The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs’ report on economic forecasts shows that inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, and is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2027.
GDP growth is expected to reach 1.4% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.7% in 2027.
Market reaction
The economic forecasts issued by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) are expected to have a minimal impact on the Swiss franc (CHF). At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading 0.06% higher around 0.7965.
Frequently asked questions about the Swiss economy
Switzerland is the ninth largest economy measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) on the European continent. Measured by per capita GDP – a broad measure of average living standards – the country ranks among the highest in the world, meaning it is one of the richest countries in the world. Switzerland tends to occupy top positions in global rankings regarding living standards, development indicators, competitiveness or innovation.
Switzerland is an open, free market economy based mainly on the service sector. The Swiss economy has a strong export sector, and the neighboring European Union is its main trading partner. Switzerland is a leading watch export country and hosts leading companies in the food, chemical and pharmaceutical industries. The country is considered an international tax haven, with significantly lower corporate and income tax rates than its European neighbours.
As a high-income country, the growth rate of the Swiss economy has diminished over the past decades. However, its political and economic stability, high education levels, top-tier companies in many industries, and its tax haven status have made it a favored destination for foreign investment. This has generally benefited the Swiss franc (CHF), which has historically remained relatively strong against its major counterparts. In general, the good performance of the Swiss economy – based on high growth, low unemployment and stable prices – tends to favor an appreciation of the Swiss franc. Conversely, if economic data indicates weak momentum, the value of the Swiss franc is likely to decline.
Switzerland is not a commodity exporting country, so commodity prices in general are not the main driver of the Swiss franc (CHF). However, there is a slight correlation between gold and oil prices. For gold, the Swiss franc’s safe-haven status and the fact that the currency was backed by precious metals meant that both assets tended to move in the same direction. As for oil, a paper from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggests that higher oil prices could negatively impact the value of the Swiss franc, as Switzerland is a net importer of the fuel.
