Gold Price Forecast: XAU/SD extends its recovery to the $4,400 area

gold XAU/USD accelerated its recovery in a weak holiday session on Friday, with markets in Japan and China closed for New Year celebrations. The precious metal rose 1.75% on the day, reaching levels near $4,400, after rebounding from $4,274 earlier this week.

A combination of market expectations of lower US interest rates and rising geopolitical frictions have fueled support for precious metals over the past few sessions. Russia announced a review of its position on peace talks with Ukraine, after an alleged drone attack on one of President Vladimir Putin’s residences, while US President Trump escalated his tone against Iran.

Technical Analysis: Gold is likely to find resistance at $4,400 and $4,445

XAU/USD chart analysis

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading at $4,395 after bouncing higher from the area between the 61.8% and 78.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of the December high. This is a common target for corrections, but Monday’s bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart should serve as a warning to buyers.

Technical indicators on intraday charts are positive. The 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning higher, strengthening the bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.85, which is neutral and slightly favors long trades
Resistance is found at the December 30 high, near $4,400, before the December 23-24 lows, at the $4,445 area and broken trend line support, which is now around $4,500. Support is located at the 4305 intraday level and the December 31 low of $4274. In case of further decline, the target is at the early December lows, near $4,170.

(Technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an artificial intelligence tool)

US dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed today. The US dollar was the strongest against the British pound.

US dollars euro GBP JPY Canadian Australian dollar New Zealand dollar Swiss franc
US dollars 0.17% 0.19% 0.05% 0.05% -0.23% -0.28% -0.08%
euro -0.17% -0.02% -0.04% -0.02% -0.36% -0.34% -0.15%
GBP -0.19% 0.02% -0.02% -0.04% -0.34% -0.35% -0.12%
JPY -0.05% 0.04% 0.02% -0.11% -0.41% -0.38% -0.13%
Canadian -0.05% 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% -0.32% -0.28% -0.12%
Australian dollar 0.23% 0.36% 0.34% 0.41% 0.32% 0.02% 0.22%
New Zealand dollar 0.28% 0.34% 0.35% 0.38% 0.28% -0.02% 0.20%
Swiss franc 0.08% 0.15% 0.12% 0.13% 0.12% -0.22% -0.20%

The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select USD from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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