The USD/CHF pair is trading 0.15% higher near 0.7930 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Swiss franc pair rose as the US dollar traded higher amid risk-off sentiment in the market, following the US strike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro to face drug trafficking charges in New York.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US currency against six major currencies, was up 0.25% to 98.66.
Investors are bracing for extreme volatility in the US dollar this week, with a slew of US data coming out, particularly non-farm payrolls data for December, which would not have been distorted by the government shutdown.
US NFP data will significantly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy action at its January meeting, given that interest rate cuts in 2025 were largely driven by weakness in the labor market.
In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in slightly higher at 48.3 from 48.2 in November, indicating that activities have contracted again, but at a slightly moderate pace. A number below the threshold of 50.0 is considered a decline in business activities.
Meanwhile, the highlight of the Swiss Franc (CHF) this week will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be released on Thursday. Inflation data will provide signals on whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will focus on policy normalization in the near term.
On Monday, investors will focus on real retail sales data for November, which will be released at 07:30 GMT. Swiss real retail sales are expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.9%, faster than 2.7% in October.
Economic indicator
ISM Manufacturing PMI
the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading index that measures business activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States. The index is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their organizations. Survey answers reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the industrial economy is generally expanding, which is a bullish signal for the US dollar. A reading below 50 indicates that factory activity is generally declining, which is considered bearish for the US dollar.
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Next release:
Monday 05 January 2026 at 15:00
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
48.3
former:
48.2
source:
Institute of Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of business activity during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are leading indicators and can indicate a turn in the economic cycle. Stronger than expected prints usually have a positive impact on the US dollar. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and Prices Paid Index numbers are closely watched as they highlight the labor market and inflation.
