The EUR/CAD pair rose for the second session in a row, trading around the 1.6140 level during European hours on Tuesday. The currency rises as the risk-sensitive euro strengthens, while the commodity-linked Canadian dollar could face pressure on expectations of renewed U.S. and corporate access to Venezuela’s vast crude oil reserves, weighing on demand for Canadian oil from its largest buyer.
In addition, speculation about future Venezuelan production and a muted initial price response have heightened concerns that a continued decline in oil prices would undermine a key pillar of Canada’s external earnings and support for the currency. Meanwhile, the global oil outlook through 2026 looks softer, with abundant supply and weak demand forecasts reducing the downside cushion for the Canadian dollar.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell after posting gains of more than 1.5% in the previous session, trading around $57.70 at the time of writing. Traders are assessing the impact of US actions towards Venezuela on global oil supplies. Despite having the world’s largest proven reserves, Venezuela contributes less than 1% of global output, limiting the potential impact on prices of any interruption in exports.
Traders will likely be monitoring HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone. Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data for December will also be paid attention to later today.
The euro is supported after the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated it will keep interest rates steady for an extended period after its decision in December 2025. ECB President Christine Lagarde said growing uncertainty makes it difficult to provide clear forward guidance on future policy decisions.
Economic indicator
Consolidated consumer price index (annual)
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), issued by the German Statistical Office Destatis On a monthly basis, it is an indicator of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all EU member states to facilitate comparisons. The annual reading compares prices in the reference month to the previous year. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is considered bearish.
Read more.
Next release:
Tuesday 06 January 2026, at 1:00 p.m. (previous)
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
2.2%
former:
2.6%
