The USD/CAD pair remains in positive territory for the third session in a row, trading around the 1.3890 level during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair maintains its strength as the US dollar receives support from stronger than expected US economic data. Traders will watch the weekly US initial jobless claims report later on Thursday, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday that retail sales rose more than expected to $735.9 billion in November, up 0.6%, after a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations for a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot in November, with key and core metrics hitting 3% year-on-year.
Combined with last week’s data that showed the US unemployment rate falling to 4.4% in December, these releases strengthen the US Federal Reserve’s case for keeping interest rates unchanged for the coming months, which could support the US dollar. In response, Morgan Stanley analysts pushed back their rate cut expectations to June and September from January and April after Friday’s jobs report.
The upside for USD/CAD could be limited as the commodity-linked Canadian dollar receives support from higher oil prices, given the status of Canada’s largest exporter of crude oil to the United States. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $60.20 at the time of writing. Crude oil prices rose amid ongoing tensions in Iran. Traders will be closely monitoring the latest geopolitical developments surrounding the Iranian civil unrest.
Frequently asked questions about the Canadian dollar
The main factors that move the Canadian dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the trade balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are moving into riskier assets (risk on) or looking for safe havens (risk off) – with risk being positive for the Canadian dollar. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a major factor affecting the Canadian dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has significant influence on the Canadian dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to each other. This affects the level of interest rates for everyone. The Bank of Canada’s main goal is to keep inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates tend to be positive for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD negative and the latter positive.
The price of oil is a major factor affecting the value of the Canadian dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s largest export, so oil prices tend to have an immediate impact on the value of the Canadian dollar. In general, if the price of oil rises, the Canadian dollar also rises, as overall demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of oil falls. Higher oil prices also tend to increase the likelihood of a positive trade balance, which also supports the Canadian dollar.
While inflation has always been thought to be a negative factor for a currency because it reduces the value of money, the opposite is the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to prompt central banks to raise interest rates, attracting more capital flows from global investors looking for a profitable place to keep their money. This increases the demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases measure the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian dollar. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing PMIs, services, employment and consumer surveys can all influence the direction of the Canadian dollar. A strong economy is good for the Canadian dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, it may encourage the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, the Canadian dollar will likely fall.
