Official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that China’s economy grew by 1.2% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 1.1% growth in the third quarter. This figure was higher than market expectations of 1.0%.
On an annual basis, China’s GDP rose 4.5% in the fourth quarter after rising 4.8% in the previous quarter, stronger than market expectations of 4.4%.
China’s annual retail sales for December rose 0.9% versus 1.2% expected and 1.3% previously, while industrial production came in at 5.2% versus 5.0% expected and November’s reading came in at 4.8%.
Meanwhile, fixed asset investment fell 3.8% year-to-date year-on-year in December versus a 3.0% decline expected and a 2.6% decline in the previous reading.
AUD/USD reaction to Chinese data dump
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose slightly in immediate reaction to GDP and activity data in China. At press time, AUD/USD was up 0.02% on the day at 0.6686.
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the major currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the US dollar.
| US dollars | euro | GBP | JPY | Canadian | Australian dollar | New Zealand dollar | Swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollars | -0.20% | -0.08% | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.48% | |
| euro | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.18% | -0.02% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.40% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.01% | -0.25% | |
| Canadian | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.08% | -0.35% | |
| Australian dollar | 0.01% | -0.18% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.21% | -0.47% | |
| New Zealand dollar | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.21% | -0.27% | |
| Swiss franc | 0.48% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published on Sunday at 23:36 GMT as an introduction to China’s trade balance data.
Overview of China’s quarterly GDP
The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics will publish its data at 02:00 GMT on Monday. China’s quarterly GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in the fourth quarter (Q4), compared to an expansion of 1.1% in the third quarter. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.4% versus 4.8% previously.
GDP data is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. GDP is the main measure of economic activity in China.
Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to show a 1.2% year-on-year increase in December, compared to 1.3% in the previous reading. Industrial production is expected to show a rise of 5.0% year-on-year in the same period versus 4.8% previously.
How could China’s quarterly GDP affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD is trading negatively on the day in the run-up to China’s quarterly GDP, retail sales and industrial production data. The pair is losing ground as the US dollar strengthens after improving US labor market data dampened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through June.
If the data comes in better than expected, it could push the Australian dollar (AUD) higher, with the first upward barrier seen at the January 15 high of 0.6710. The next resistance level appears at the January 13 high of 0.6727, on its way to the January 7 high of 0.6767.
On the downside, the January 9 low at 0.6663 will provide some relief to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the December 8, 2024 low of 0.6614. The next competition level is at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6595.
Frequently asked questions about GDP
A country’s GDP measures the growth rate of its economy over a certain period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable numbers are those that compare GDP with the previous quarter, for example the second quarter of 2023 versus the first quarter of 2023, or with the same period the previous year, for example, the second quarter of 2023 versus the second quarter of 2022. Annual quarterly GDP numbers extrapolate the quarter’s growth rate as if it were constant for the rest of the year. This can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks affect growth in one quarter but are unlikely to persist throughout the year – as happened in the first quarter of 2020 when the Covid pandemic struck, when growth declined.
A high GDP result is generally considered positive for a country’s currency because it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attract higher foreign investment. In the same vein, when GDP falls, it is usually negative for the currency. When the economy grows, people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank must then raise interest rates to combat inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency rise.
When the economy grows and GDP rises, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank must then raise interest rates to combat inflation. High interest rates are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold versus putting money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for the gold price.
