The Indian Rupee (INR) opened negatively against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 88.85 as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its peers, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of its October policy meeting were released on Wednesday. At the policy meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, was looking back at a five-month high of around 100.40.
Minutes from the FOMC meeting showed that few policymakers would have been satisfied even if interest rates had remained steady, as a second consecutive outright rate cut could derail progress on returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.
During a policy meeting in December, officials were divided on whether to cut interest rates again, noting that further monetary expansion could boost inflation expectations and weaken household confidence in the central bank’s commitment to lowering inflation to the 2% target in time.
Comments by several Fed officials indicating that the monetary expansion cycle has stalled further reduced bets supporting an interest rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% at its December meeting has narrowed to 32.8% from 50.1% seen a day before the FOMC minutes were released.
The table below shows the percentage change in the Indian Rupee (INR) against the major currencies listed today. The Indian rupee was the weakest against the Australian dollar.
| US dollars | euro | GBP | JPY | Canadian | Australian dollar | Indian rupee | Swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollars | 0.06% | -0.06% | 0.38% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.24% | 0.06% | |
| euro | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.31% | -0.07% | -0.26% | 0.16% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.41% | 0.06% | -0.13% | 0.30% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.38% | -0.31% | -0.41% | -0.38% | -0.56% | -0.12% | -0.32% | |
| Canadian | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.38% | -0.18% | 0.24% | 0.07% | |
| Australian dollar | 0.20% | 0.26% | 0.13% | 0.56% | 0.18% | 0.43% | 0.25% | |
| Indian rupee | -0.24% | -0.16% | -0.30% | 0.12% | -0.24% | -0.43% | -0.16% | |
| Swiss franc | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.32% | -0.07% | -0.25% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily summary of market drivers: Indian rupee weakens on dovish RBI outlook
- USD/INR’s strong opening on Thursday was also driven by a weak Indian rupee. The Indian currency came under pressure as investors became concerned about the delay in announcing a trade deal between the United States (US) and India.
- Senior negotiators from both countries said they were close to reaching an agreement; However, the absence of a concrete announcement has kept investors on edge.
- Meanwhile, growing acceptance among financial market participants that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut interest rates in its December policy meeting is also keeping the Indian rupee under pressure.
- The Reserve Bank of India’s dovish bets were accelerated by slowing inflationary pressures. In October, retail inflation slowed faster than expected to 0.25% year-on-year, driven by soft food prices and tax cuts on consumer goods announced in the third quarter of the year. This was the second month in a row that inflation data came in below the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band of 2% to 6%.
- Going forward, investors will focus on HSBC India’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be released on Friday.
- In Thursday’s session, the main catalyst for the USD/INR pair will be the US non-farm payrolls data for September, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to official employment data because it will influence market expectations about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
- Economists expect US employers to create 50,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings, a key measure of wage growth, are expected to grow steadily by 0.3% and 3.7% on a monthly and annual basis.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR is bouncing from the 20-day EMA period
The USD/INR pair jumps to nearly 88.80 on Thursday. The pair ended a four-day losing streak after attracting buy orders below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around the 88.70 level.
The 14-day RSI is bouncing towards the 60.00 level. A decisive breakout of the RSI above this level would trigger bullish momentum.
Looking down, the August 21 low at 87.07 will serve as major support for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high at 89.12 will act as a major barrier.
Economic indicator
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting
FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which organizes 8 meetings a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are issued by the central bank’s Board of Governors Federal Reserve It is a clear guide to future US interest rate policy.
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Latest version:
Wednesday 19 November 2025 at 19:00
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Federal Reserve
FOMC minutes are typically published three weeks after the day the policy decision is made. Investors look for clues on the policy outlook in this post along with the vote split. The bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the dollar while the dovish stance is seen as negative for the US dollar. It should be noted that market reaction to the FOMC minutes may be delayed due to news media not having access to the publication prior to release, unlike the FOMC policy statement.
