The AUD/USD pair is starting the new week on a weak note in reaction to China’s unimpressive official PMIs released over the weekend, although the downside remains limited. Spot prices are currently trading just below the mid-0.6500s, near the two-week high touched on Friday, and look set to build on the recent strong upward move we have seen over the past week or so.
China’s official manufacturing PMI remained below the 50.0 mark, in contraction territory, for the eighth month in November, a National Bureau of Statistics survey showed on Sunday. In addition, China’s non-manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 in the previous month to 49.5, marking the lowest reading since December 2022 and the first contraction in nearly three years.
However, the immediate market reaction turned out to be short-lived amid easing trade tensions and recent government measures announced to boost consumption in the world’s second-largest economy. This, coupled with diminishing prospects for further policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), is acting as a tailwind for the Australian dollar amid a weaker US dollar (USD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against a basket of currencies, is near a two-week low amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs again this month. Aside from this, the underlying bullish sentiment in financial markets is undermining the safe-haven dollar and should benefit the riskier AUD/USD pair.
Even from a technical perspective, a break above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on Friday supports the case for further upside movement in the near term. However, traders appear reluctant to place aggressive bets and are choosing to wait for important US economic releases this week, which are set to kick off a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today.
Economic indicator
NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI
NBS Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) is a leading indicator that measures business activity in China’s non-manufacturing sector, i.e. services and construction. Data are drawn from surveys of senior executives in service and construction companies. Survey answers reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as GDP, industrial production, employment and inflation. The index ranges between 0 and 100, and levels of 50.0 indicate no change compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, which is a bullish signal for the renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 indicates that activity among service providers and real estate is generally declining, which is considered bearish for the Chinese yuan.
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Latest version:
Sunday 30 November 2025 at 01:30
repetition:
monthly
actual:
49.5
consensus:
–
former:
50.1
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) publishes the non-manufacturing PMI on a monthly basis. The measure highlights the performance of China’s services sector, which has a significant impact on the global foreign exchange market, given the size of the Chinese economy. Expansion in Chinese service sector activity indicates signs of economic improvement and vice versa.
