The AUD/USD pair is trading marginally near 0.6470 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Australian pair is under slight pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s value against six major currencies, is trading solidly near a five-month high around 100.30.
The US Dollar (USD) is showing strength as traders cut their bets to support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting has narrowed to 32.8% from 50.1% seen on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook softened following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes of its October monetary policy release on Wednesday. The minutes showed that officials stressed the need to be cautious about further cuts in interest rates after cutting them by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.
“Most participants indicated that further interest rate cuts could increase the risk that higher inflation would become entrenched or could be misinterpreted as failure to adhere to the 2% inflation target,” FOMC minutes showed.
Meanwhile, investors are awaiting US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Official employment data will significantly influence market expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Economists expect US employers to add 50,000 new workers, higher than 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings, a key measure of wage growth, are expected to grow steadily by 0.3% and 3.7% on a monthly and annual basis.
On the Australian dollar side, investors are awaiting the flash data for the global S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November, which will be released on Friday.
Economic indicator
Nonfarm payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release shows the number of new jobs created in the United States during the previous month at all nonfarm businesses. Released by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Plus). Monthly changes in payroll can be very volatile. The number is also subject to strong revisions, which can also create fluctuations in the Forex board. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bearish, although revisions to the previous months and the unemployment rate are just as important as the headline number. Therefore, the market reaction depends on how the market evaluates all the data in the BLS report as a whole.
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Next release:
Thursday 20 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
50 thousand
former:
22 k
source:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The monthly jobs report in America is considered the most important economic indicator for Forex traders. The change in the number of jobs, released on the first Friday of the month, is closely linked to the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the powers of the Fed and it takes into account developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus affecting currencies. Although there are several key indicators that make up estimates, the Non-Farm Payrolls report tends to surprise markets and trigger significant volatility. Actual numbers that beat consensus tend to be bullish for the US dollar.
