EUR/JPY falls as BoJ rate hike bets strengthen Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY is trading at 180.50 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day. The move reflects a clear strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY) following new comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which revived expectations of an imminent interest rate hike.

Ueda stressed that the Bank of Japan will remain ready to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation continue to develop as expected, noting that the probability of the basic scenario for growth and prices is “gradually increasing.” These statements pushed Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in several years and reinforced expectations of an interest rate hike.

This potential for monetary normalization narrows the yield gap between Japan and other major economies, mechanically supporting the Japanese yen and pressuring the EUR/JPY pair. The cautious tone in stock markets is also boosting safe-haven demand, favoring the Japanese yen.

On the European side, the euro remains supported by the widely accepted view that the European Central Bank (ECB) has completed its interest rate cutting cycle. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently stated that borrowing costs are currently at the “right level,” while other members of the Governing Council, such as Joachim Nagel, have expressed comfort with the current policy stance. However, this support remains modest compared to the stronger momentum behind the Japanese yen.

Investors will now focus on Tuesday’s euro zone inflation release via the consolidated consumer price index (HICP). Markets expect the headline CPI to rise 2.2% year-on-year in November, with the core CPI up 2.5%. A hotter-than-expected reading could provide some relief to the euro by enhancing the possibility of a prolonged policy pause in the euro zone.

However, in the near term, momentum remains in favor of the Japanese yen, supported by repeated signals from the Bank of Japan that a tightening phase is approaching. The EUR/JPY pair therefore maintains a bearish bias as long as investors continue to favor the Japanese yen in this context of expected normalization in Japan and a generally cautious market environment.

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed today. The euro was the strongest against the British pound.

US dollars euro GBP JPY Canadian Australian dollar New Zealand dollar Swiss franc
US dollars -0.23% 0.11% -0.64% 0.07% -0.02% 0.08% -0.06%
euro 0.23% 0.34% -0.34% 0.30% 0.22% 0.31% 0.17%
GBP -0.11% -0.34% -0.66% -0.04% -0.12% -0.03% -0.17%
JPY 0.64% 0.34% 0.66% 0.65% 0.56% 0.65% 0.50%
Canadian -0.07% -0.30% 0.04% -0.65% -0.09% 0.00% -0.14%
Australian dollar 0.02% -0.22% 0.12% -0.56% 0.09% 0.09% -0.05%
New Zealand dollar -0.08% -0.31% 0.03% -0.65% -0.01% -0.09% -0.14%
Swiss franc 0.06% -0.17% 0.17% -0.50% 0.14% 0.05% 0.14%

The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select EUR from the left column and move along the horizontal line to USD, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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