The EUR/USD pair is holding on to its gains on Wednesday, although it remains capped below the 1.1600 line, trading at 1.1575 at the time of writing. The European Central Bank’s concerns about financial risks have dampened investors’ risk appetite, but US dollar gains remain limited ahead of US durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims numbers.
US economic data released on Tuesday revealed a weaker-than-expected increase in retail sales in September, while the producer price index continued to grow at a steady pace. Consumer confidence has deteriorated, with families concerned about rising costs and slowing job opportunities. These figures reinforced market expectations for an immediate Fed cut in interest rates, increasing pressure on the US dollar.
Meanwhile, representatives of the United States and Ukraine continue to work on the roadmap for the peace plan. US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that the original plan had been “carefully revised with additional input from both sides” and that he would send special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week. This news and the positive reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky helped improve market sentiment and provided additional support to the euro.
During the European session on Wednesday, the European Central Bank released its Financial Stability Report, which contains specific warnings about “increasing risks to financial stability in Europe” and states that rising public debt in some countries could strain bond markets. Later, ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde are expected to meet the press.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed today. The euro was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollars | euro | GBP | JPY | Canadian | Australian dollar | New Zealand dollar | Swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollars | -0.09% | -0.11% | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.55% | -1.11% | -0.17% | |
| euro | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.29% | -0.08% | -0.46% | -1.02% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.31% | -0.05% | -0.43% | -1.00% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.73% | -1.29% | -0.35% | |
| Canadian | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.36% | -0.39% | -0.96% | -0.01% | |
| Australian dollar | 0.55% | 0.46% | 0.43% | 0.73% | 0.39% | -0.57% | 0.36% | |
| New Zealand dollar | 1.11% | 1.02% | 1.00% | 1.29% | 0.96% | 0.57% | 0.95% | |
| Swiss franc | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.35% | 0.00% | -0.36% | -0.95% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select EUR from the left column and move along the horizontal line to USD, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Risk appetite and the Fed’s rising hopes for easing are weighing on the US dollar
- The euro is drawing support from a weaker US dollar, as recent US numbers boosted expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, while hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine contribute to improving market sentiment. The decline in US Treasury yields is impacting the US Dollar Index, which has fallen by about 0.6% over the past three days.
- U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday showed that consumption grew 0.2% in September, below expectations for a 0.4% increase, and following 0.6% growth in August. Excluding automobiles, sales of all other products rose 0.3%, also below expectations of 0.4%, while the August reading was revised down to 0.6% from a previously estimated increase of 0.7%.
- The US Producer Price Index rose 0.3% in September after a 0.1% contraction in August. Year-on-year producer price inflation remained steady at 2.7%, in line with market expectations. On the other hand, the core Producer Price Index fell to an annual pace of 2.6% from 2.9% in August, beating expectations for a reading of 2.7%.
- The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a six-month low of 88.7 in November from an upwardly revised reading of 95.5 in October, complementing the weak picture of the US economic outlook and strengthening the case for further easing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
- A Reuters report suggests that Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council (NEC), appears as best placed to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chairman at the end of his term in May. Hassett has called for lower interest rates to support economic growth, and is expected to pursue a more flexible monetary policy. This news added more pressure on the US dollar.
- On Wednesday, US durable goods orders growth is expected to slow to 0.3% in September, from 2.9% in August. Excluding transportation, orders are expected to grow at a rate of 0.2%, after a downwardly revised reading of 0.3% in August.
- Initial unemployment claims in the US are expected to rise to 225,000 from 220,000 in the week of November 21.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD is under increasing upward pressure near 1.1600
EUR/USD bulls have taken control after breaking through the 1.1550 resistance zone and are testing the 1.1600 level, which still holds so far. Technical indicators are showing improving momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold levels but not there yet, while the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) has crossed above the zero line, highlighting improving bullish momentum.
The bullish move remains capped below the mentioned resistance area above 1.1600 (November 18 and 19 highs). Furthermore, the bulls are likely to face a challenge at the top of the descending channel from the mid-October highs, which now lies around 1.1625, ahead of the October 28 and 29 highs, near 1.1670.
On the downside, previous resistance at 1.1550 (November 21-24 highs) is expected to provide support ahead of the 1.1500 psychological level. A bearish reaction below would increase pressure towards the November 5 lows, near 1.1470, and the bottom of the descending channel from the early October highs, now around 1.1425.
Economic indicator
Durable goods orders
Durable goods orders issued by US Census Bureaumeasures the cost of orders that manufacturers receive for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three or more years, such as cars and appliances. Since these durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the economic situation in the United States. The final figure shows the state of production activity in the United States. In general, a higher reading is considered bullish for the US dollar.
Read more.
Next release:
Wednesday 26 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
0.3%
former:
2.9%
source:
US Census Bureau
Economic indicator
Initial unemployment claims
Initial unemployment claims issued by US Department of Labor It is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A higher than expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US dollar. On the other hand, a decreasing number should be considered as an upward trend for the US dollar.
Read more.
Next release:
Wednesday 26 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
weekly
consensus:
225 thousand
former:
220 thousand
source:
US Department of Labor
Every Thursday, the US Department of Labor publishes the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the previous week in the United States. Since this reading can be very volatile, investors may pay more attention to the four-week average. A downward trend is seen as a sign of an improving labor market and may have a positive impact on the performance of the US dollar against competing currencies and vice versa.
