The EUR/USD pair is trading flat around the 1.1600 level during the early European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair is consolidating as investors await preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday.
Investors will pay close attention to Eurozone inflation data as it will influence market expectations about the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook.
Economists expect the headline CPI to come in at 2.2% on an annual basis, higher than 2.1% in October. Core inflation is also expected to accelerate to 2.5% from the previous reading of 2.4%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is trading cautiously amid growing acceptance among investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in next week’s monetary policy announcement.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87.4% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in December.
Daily chart of EUR/USD
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1593. The 20 EMA has stabilized around the 1.1577 area, with the price holding marginally above it and a modest rise indicating an improving short-term bias. The downtrend line is advancing from 1.1776, and resistance is seen near 1.1606. RSI at 51.8 (neutral) reflects balanced momentum after mid-month rebound.
Momentum will strengthen on a decisive close above 1.1606, opening the door to an extension of the bounce, while a break below 1.1577 will put sellers back in control. Until then, the pair is consolidating just below trend resistance, and the flat 20 EMA is offering initial support as the broader bearish slope retreats.
(Technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an artificial intelligence tool)
Economic indicator
Consolidated consumer price index (annual)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. HICP, issued by Eurostat On a monthly basis, they are harmonized because the same methodology is used in all member states and their contributions are weighted. The annual reading compares prices in the reference month to the previous year. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is considered bearish.
Read more.
Next release:
Tuesday 02 December 2025 at 10:00 (before)
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
2.2%
former:
2.1%
source:
Eurostat
