The EUR/USD pair continues its losing streak for the fifth day of trading on Thursday. The major currency pair fell to its lowest level in almost two weeks at 1.1500 during the European trading session. The pair’s weakness is mainly due to the strength of the US Dollar (USD), which is outperforming its peers amid declining expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in December.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is trading solidly near a five-month high of around 100.30.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting has narrowed to 32.8% from 50.1% seen on Tuesday.
Traders trimmed dovish Fed bets after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of its October policy meeting were released on Wednesday, which showed that many policymakers backed keeping interest rates steady at the December meeting, noting that further easing of monetary policy could anchor consumer inflation expectations.
For further signals on the monetary policy outlook, investors are awaiting US non-farm payrolls data for September, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. US NFP data will weigh heavily on the Fed’s interest rate outlook as many officials have warned of downside risks in the labor market.
Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure as a decline in the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook dampens investors’ risk appetite.
From now on, the euro will be affected by the preliminary November HCOB data, which will be released on Friday.
Economic indicator
Nonfarm payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release shows the number of new jobs created in the United States during the previous month at all nonfarm businesses. Released by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Plus). Monthly changes in payroll can be very volatile. The number is also subject to strong revisions, which can also create fluctuations in the Forex board. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bearish, although revisions to the previous months and the unemployment rate are just as important as the headline number. Therefore, the market reaction depends on how the market evaluates all the data in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.
Next release:
Thursday 20 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
50 thousand
former:
22 k
source:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The monthly jobs report in America is considered the most important economic indicator for Forex traders. The change in the number of jobs, released on the first Friday of the month, is closely linked to the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the powers of the Fed and it takes into account developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus affecting currencies. Although there are several key indicators that make up estimates, the Non-Farm Payrolls report tends to surprise markets and trigger significant volatility. Actual numbers that beat consensus tend to be bullish for the US dollar.
