Gold (XAU/USD) held on to modest intraday losses during the first half of the European session on Thursday, although it lacked a follow-up sell-off as traders eagerly awaited the delayed release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Meanwhile, lower bets on another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve lifted the US dollar to its highest level since late May and put some downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor undermining gold as a safe haven. However, concerns about weakening economic momentum on the back of the longest US government shutdown on record are helping to limit deeper losses for the precious metal. This, in turn, makes it wise to wait for a strong sell-off before confirming that this week’s bounce from levels just below the psychological $4,000 level has lost steam.
Daily Summary Market Drivers: Gold is under pressure due to lower Fed rate cut bets and continued buying of the US dollar
- Minutes from the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate, while many were against the decision. Policymakers warned that lowering interest rates further could risk entrenched inflation.
- The tightening expectations forced investors to reduce their bets that the US central bank will cut borrowing costs again in December. This in turn lifts the US dollar to its highest level since late May during the Asian session on Thursday and puts some downward pressure on non-yielding gold.
- Traders are now looking forward to the delayed release of the US non-farm payrolls report for September, which is due later today, amid signs of a weak labor market. The important data will play a major role in influencing the USD price dynamics in the near term and provide new directional momentum for the commodity.
- US President Donald Trump reportedly approved a 28-point plan for peace between Russia and Ukraine this week. Several media outlets indicated that the plan in question would require Ukraine to make territorial concessions and implement significant reductions in its military capabilities.
- The US delegation made a rare wartime visit to Kiev for talks with Ukrainian leaders in an attempt to revive stalled peace talks with Russia. This is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal and calls for some caution for bullish traders amid a new wave of risk-on trading.
Gold is waiting for acceptance above $4,100 or a break below the 200 period EMA on H4 before the next phase of the directional move.
From a technical perspective, any further decline will likely find good support near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently pegged near the $4,018 area. This is followed by a weekly swing low, levels just below the $4,000 psychological level, below which gold price could accelerate a decline towards the $3,931 support level. The downward path could extend further towards a retest of the late October swing lows, around the $3,886 area.
On the other hand, the peak of the Asian session, around the $4,110 area, could act as immediate resistance. Some subsequent buying after the overnight swing high, near the $4120 area, will be seen as a fresh catalyst for bullish traders and lift the gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $4152-4155 area. The subsequent upward move should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $4,200 round figure mark.
Economic indicator
Nonfarm payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release shows the number of new jobs created in the United States during the previous month at all nonfarm businesses. Released by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Plus). Monthly changes in payroll can be very volatile. The number is also subject to strong revisions, which can also create fluctuations in the Forex board. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bearish, although revisions to the previous months and the unemployment rate are just as important as the headline number. Therefore, the market reaction depends on how the market evaluates all the data in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.
Next release:
Thursday 20 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
50 thousand
former:
22 k
source:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The monthly jobs report in America is considered the most important economic indicator for Forex traders. The change in the number of jobs, released on the first Friday of the month, is closely linked to the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the powers of the Fed and it takes into account developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus affecting currencies. Although there are several key indicators that make up estimates, the Non-Farm Payrolls report tends to surprise markets and trigger significant volatility. Actual numbers that beat consensus tend to be bullish for the US dollar.
