A political transition in Venezuela could revive the oil sector and influence global oil prices, although OPEC’s halt of production quotas provides some support for Brent crude. Amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent central bank demand, gold remains a preferred safe haven, with an end-2026 target of $4,800, noted OCBC forex analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong.
OPEC pause supports Brent crude, downside limited in medium term
“The US strike leads to a political transition in Venezuela, increasing the prospects for sanctions relief and oil sector recovery. This could increase downward pressure on global oil prices in the medium term. We maintain our forecast for Brent to bottom near US$59 per barrel by the end of the year, awaiting clarity on Venezuela’s new government and resource policy. OPEC’s pause in increasing quotas supports a soft floor for Brent in the high 50s.”
“Recent events highlight risks to the global system and reinforce gold’s role as a strategic hedging and portfolio diversification tool. We maintain a constructive outlook on gold amid a continued dovish Fed bias, continued central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. We expect gold to reach $4,800 by the end of 2026.”
