A Reuters poll published on Wednesday showed unanimous expectations that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) would keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in January.
All 100 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50%-3.75% at its January 27-28 meeting. 58% of respondents expected no changes in interest rates during the first quarter, compared to the December poll, when at least one cut was expected by March.
Strong growth expectations and inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target are seen as limiting the scope for interest rate cuts in the near term, although most economists still expect at least two cuts later this year, according to the survey.
But after the first quarter, the poll did not reveal any firm consensus. While uncertainty remains high, a slight majority of economists — 55 out of 100 — expect interest rate cuts to resume in June or later, once Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May.
The poll also showed a modest improvement in US growth expectations, which may reinforce expectations that the Fed is able to be patient. Economists now see the US economy expanding by 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, after an estimated 2.2% rise in 2025. These forecasts are slightly stronger than in the December poll, when respondents expected growth of 2.0%, 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.48, near its lowest levels in two weeks, extending its losses to a third straight day.
US dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed today. The US dollar was the strongest against the British pound.
| US dollars | euro | GBP | JPY | Canadian | Australian dollar | New Zealand dollar | Swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollars | -0.10% | 0.13% | -0.28% | -0.21% | -0.44% | -0.47% | -0.12% | |
| euro | 0.10% | 0.22% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.34% | -0.37% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.40% | -0.33% | -0.56% | -0.59% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | 0.28% | 0.19% | 0.40% | 0.08% | -0.15% | -0.19% | 0.17% | |
| Canadian | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.33% | -0.08% | -0.23% | -0.26% | 0.09% | |
| Australian dollar | 0.44% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.32% | |
| New Zealand dollar | 0.47% | 0.37% | 0.59% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.35% | |
| Swiss franc | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.24% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.32% | -0.35% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select USD from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
