The S&P 500 E-Mini (ES) futures continue to advance, breaking all-time highs and confirming that the prevailing trend remains strongly bullish. The structure reflects an incomplete ascending sequence originating from the November 21, 2025 low, which provides the basis for the current upward trajectory. From this bottom, the rise unfolds as a five-point diagonal wave, a formation consistent with Elliott Wave principles and often observed in strongly trending markets.
Wave ((i)) ended at 6975.25, marking the first leg of the diagonal. The subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) appeared as a zigzag corrective structure. Within this correction, wave (a) ended at 6817.5, followed by a rise in wave (b) which ended at 6882.50. The last leg of the correction, wave (c), fell to 6771.75, thus completing wave ((ii)) to a higher degree. This created a pivotal low that continues to serve as a critical reference point for continued progress.
Then the index resumed its rise in wave ((iii)). After wave (ii) completed, wave (i) ended at 6872, while wave (ii) declined modestly to 6857.5. Wave (iii) extended up to 6990, followed by a short consolidation in wave (iv) at 6974. A final push in wave (v) carried prices to 6994, completing wave ((iii)) to a higher degree. Then the corrective pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 6936, paving the way for renewed strength.
In the near term, as long as the pivot at 6771.75 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to find support within the 3, 7 or 11 swing sequence. A potential upside target can be predicted using the external retracement levels of wave ((iv)). The outer retracement zone from 1.236% to 161.8% indicates a range between 7007 and 7029. This measured extension underscores the potential for further gains, provided the corrective phases remain orderly and contained.
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) 45-minute chart from 12.24.2025 update
Elliott wave ES [Video]
