The bull cycle in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which started from the low of April 7, 2025, is still underway as a five-wave impulsive structure. Wave (3) of this advance concluded at the October 29 high of $689.70. After that, the corrective phase in wave (4) unfolded as a double triple Elliott wave pattern, as shown in the 30-minute chart.
From the peak of wave (3), wave W completed at $661.21, followed by the high of wave X which ended at $685.73. The last wave, wave Y, developed as a zigzag correction. Within this structure, wave ((a)) ended at $663.26, wave ((b)) fell to $676.24, and wave ((c)) fell to $655.81, thus completing wave Y of (4) to a higher degree.
The ETF has since begun to turn higher from the 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension zone of the WXY retracement, which extends from $639.80 to $657.40. This area has acted as a potential inflection point, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The corrective decline appeared in three waves, and the absence of an extended third leg supports the view that it was corrective rather than impulsive.
Wave (5) is now in progress. However, a decisive break above the top of the previous wave (3) at $689.70 is required to negate the possibility of a double correction. As long as the $655.81 pivot remains intact, any pullback is expected to attract buyers in either three, seven or eleven swings. The next potential upside target is within the 123.6% – 161.8% outer retracement levels of wave (4), expected at $697.50 to $710.40.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 30-Minute Elliott Wave Chart from 11.20.2025
S&P 500 ETF Elliott Wave [Video]
