The USD/CHF pair is gaining positive momentum for the fifth day in a row and rising to its highest level in almost two weeks during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices are currently trading around the 0.8065-0.8070 region, up ~0.10% on the day, and appear set to rise further amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose to its highest level since late May on the back of a less pessimistic Federal Reserve outlook. In fact, chances of another rate cut in December declined after minutes from the October FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday that members were divided on how to proceed. This helps offset concerns about the weakening of the economic slowdown caused by the longest US government shutdown on record and favors US dollar bears, validating the positive outlook for USD/CHF.
Meanwhile, markets had little reaction to the recent US-Swiss trade deal amid recent weak data, which showed that the export-oriented Swiss economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time in more than two years. Aside from this, a new wave of global risk-on trading is contributing to the relatively weak performance of the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF), and providing additional support for USD/CHF. However, expectations that the Swiss National Bank will keep interest rates at 0% in December amid expectations of higher inflation may limit losses for the Swiss franc.
Furthermore, dollar bulls may choose to wait for the delayed release of the US September non-farm payrolls report before positioning for any further gains. However, the above fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for USD/CHF remains bullish. Even from a technical perspective, an overnight break of the 100-day SMA supports the case for further upside movement in the near term.
Economic indicator
Nonfarm payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release shows the number of new jobs created in the United States during the previous month at all nonfarm businesses. Released by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Plus). Monthly changes in payroll can be very volatile. The number is also subject to strong revisions, which can also create fluctuations in the Forex board. In general, a high reading is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bearish, although revisions to the previous months and the unemployment rate are just as important as the headline number. Therefore, the market reaction depends on how the market evaluates all the data in the BLS report as a whole.
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Next release:
Thursday 20 November 2025 at 1:30
repetition:
monthly
consensus:
50 thousand
former:
22 k
source:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The monthly jobs report in America is considered the most important economic indicator for Forex traders. The change in the number of jobs, released on the first Friday of the month, is closely linked to the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the powers of the Fed and it takes into account developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus affecting currencies. Although there are several key indicators that make up estimates, the Non-Farm Payrolls report tends to surprise markets and trigger significant volatility. Actual numbers that beat consensus tend to be bullish for the US dollar.
