USD/CHF Price Forecast: Falling 20-day EMA suggests trend remains bearish

USD/CHF is trading 0.12% lower near 0.7880 during Tuesday’s European trading session. The CHF pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of its December meeting late in the New York session.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is trading weakly near 98.00.

The FOMC minutes are expected to have a significant impact on the US dollar, given the only major release in a limited-volume trading week.

Investors will be watching the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting closely for new signals about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. At the policy meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, and indicated that there will be only one rate cut in 2026.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is trading almost flat, with investors remaining uncertain about the monetary policy actions the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will take in 2026.

Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair

On the daily chart, the USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.7884. The price is holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is sloping lower at 0.7940, keeping the bearish bias intact. The bearish average continues to cap rallies over recent sessions.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) at 35.63 remains below 50, indicating weak momentum after a modest bounce from previous readings.

The bias remains bearish while the price trades below the moving average, which could push the pair down near multi-year lows at 0.7830.

(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of an artificial intelligence tool.)

Economic indicator

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting

FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which organizes 8 meetings a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are issued by the central bank’s Board of Governors Federal Reserve It is a clear guide to future US interest rate policy.


Read more.

Next release:
Tuesday 30 December 2025 at 19:00

repetition:
irregular

consensus:

former:

source:

Federal Reserve


FOMC minutes are typically published three weeks after the day the policy decision is made. Investors look for clues on the policy outlook in this post along with the vote split. The bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the dollar while the dovish stance is seen as negative for the US dollar. It should be noted that market reaction to the FOMC minutes may be delayed due to news media not having access to the publication prior to release, unlike the FOMC policy statement.

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