The Indian Rupee (INR) is showing weakness against the US Dollar (USD) at the beginning of the week. The USD/INR pair jumps to an all-time high of 91.55 as the Indian currency continues to underperform its peers. The Indian rupee is facing intense selling pressure as domestic stocks struggle to attract foreign investors amid the absence of a decisive breakthrough in US-India trade discussions.
So far in January, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in 10 out of 11 trading days, offloading stake worth Rs. Rs 26,052.40 crore. FIIs also remained net sellers in four out of 12 months in 2025.
Trade frictions between the US and India arose due to Washington raising tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 50%, one of the highest among all its trading partners, for purchasing oil from Russia.
The next major catalyst for the Indian Rupee will be the fiscal budget announcement by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1.
According to a report by Jefferies, the Indian government is expected to target a fiscal deficit of around 4.2% of GDP in fiscal 2027. The capital market firm expects the fiscal deficit to rise to 4.4% if the administration prioritizes near-term growth. The company also expects the Indian government to increase defense spending and roll out long-awaited central government pay hikes.
The table below shows the percentage change in the Indian Rupee (INR) against the major currencies listed today. The Indian rupee was the weakest against the Swiss franc.
| US dollars | euro | GBP | JPY | Canadian | Australian dollar | Indian rupee | Swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollars | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.16% | 0.25% | -0.55% | |
| euro | 0.24% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.50% | -0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.39% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.40% | -0.38% | |
| Canadian | 0.16% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.43% | -0.37% | |
| Australian dollar | 0.16% | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.42% | -0.37% | |
| Indian rupee | -0.25% | -0.50% | -0.39% | -0.40% | -0.43% | -0.42% | -0.79% | |
| Swiss franc | 0.55% | 0.29% | 0.39% | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.37% | 0.79% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in major currencies versus each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the counter currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you select the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Summary Market Movers: The European Union plans to take countermeasures against US tariff threats
- The Indian rupee was flat against the US dollar in the opening session on Monday, while the latter underperformed its other major counterparts. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, was trading 0.2% lower at 99.15.
- The US dollar has come under pressure due to new trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone due to Washington’s desire to buy and control Greenland entirely, due to security issues.
- Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods coming from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, along with Britain and Norway, starting on February 1, until Washington is allowed to buy Greenland.
- In response, EU members condemned US plans to buy all of Greenland, and threatened “unified and coordinated” countermeasures. French President Emmanuel Macron’s team said the president would ask the European Union to activate a powerful “anti-coercion instrument” if the United States imposes additional tariffs in the standoff over Greenland, France 24 reported.
- Domestically, a dovish comment from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Michel Bowman on the monetary policy outlook also weighed on the US dollar. The Fed must be prepared to cut interest rates further amid fragile labor market conditions, Bowman said in a speech on Friday. “The risks to the Fed’s mandates are asymmetric, with jobs risks outweighing inflation concerns,” Bowman said. “Given the risks, the Fed should not signal a pause in its rate-cutting campaign,” he said.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its January policy meeting.
- On the economic front, investors will focus on the preliminary data of the India-US private PMI for January, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: The USD/INR pair is seeing further rise above 91.55
USD/INR rose to an all-time high of 91.55 at the time of writing. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rising and continues to support the advance. Price action stabilizes above this dynamic scale, keeping pullbacks contained.
The 14-day RSI is at 68.85 (bullish), indicating strong momentum, with no overbought conditions. Initial support lies at the 50-day EMA at 89.9134.
As long as the pair remains above the average, an upside extension remains preferable, while a close below it would soften the tone and reveal a deeper bounce.
